Will Bears GM Ryan Poles Trade Up in the 2024 NFL Draft?

At approximately 7:10 PM CT on Thursday, Roger Goodell will walk across the 2024 NFL Draft stage in downtown Detroit and announce one of the most important selections in Chicago Bears history.

Assuming Kevin Costner doesn't take management control of the Washington Commanders within the next 36 hours ("I want David Putney"), the Bears will draft Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. As such, what the Bears decide to do with the ninth overall pick has become the more interesting discussion over the last month.

At this point, everyone and their mother has projected the Bears to draft Washington standout receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9. Odunze was the most productive receiver in all of college football last year, and he'd be the clear-cut top receiver in any other draft. He has an incredible combination of size and speed, and his ability to win jump balls is unmatched.

However, as we've inched closer and closer to the 2024 NFL Draft, many have speculated about the possibility of the Bears trading the ninth selection. In the past, general manager Ryan Poles has shown a tendency to trade back in the draft. Of seven draft-day trades, Poles has traded up only once. This year, there may be an opportunity for him to move up in the first round, which we'll examine today.

Could Poles move up in the draft to select someone like Marvin Harrison Jr.? Should he and the Bears be considering this move at all?

The First 8 Selections

As of this writing, the first eight selections in the 2024 NFL Draft are as follows:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers)
2. Washington Commanders
3. New England Patriots
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. New York Giants
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Atlanta Falcons

Three teams (Chicago, Washington, and New England) must address the quarterback position. The remaining five teams would benefit from an additional receiver like Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Odunze, though the Falcons and the Titans don't project to add a first-round pass catcher. Therefore, three teams (Arizona, Los Angeles, and New York) within the top eight picks could eye the "Big 3" receivers.

With three receiver-needy teams sitting ahead of Chicago's No. 9 selection, one player in particular becomes extremely important for the Bears' decision: Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy's draft stock has risen substantially throughout the pre-draft process. The former Wolverine was a projected late first- or early second-round prospect in early January. But on the eve of draft day, mocks have McCarthy going as high as No. 2 overall to the Commanders.

Whether or not you believe in McCarthy as an NFL talent, his presence within the first eight picks is a huge deal for the Bears. If a quarterback-needy team were to move up in the draft, say to fourth or fifth overall, to draft McCarthy, that would reduce the number of teams that could take the "Big 3" from three to two, opening the door for Chicago to grab either Odunze or Nabers.

If a team trades up to No. 4 to draft McCarthy, the Bears would have to decide whether or not to trade up to No. 5 to select this year's top positional prospect, Harrison Jr. While Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze have been considered the "Big 3" throughout the draft process, it's clear that Harrison Jr. resides in a tier of his own. The son of Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison Sr., the Ohio State superstar is considered by many to be the best overall prospect in the draft. What would it take to trade up for a player like Harrison?

NFL Draft First-Round Trades Since 2019

Before diving into a debate about the Bears, we must examine first-round trades from years past. To analyze past draft trades, we'll use this draft chart to project the value of each pick.

Draft-day trades within the first round aren't uncommon. In fact, since 2019, there have been 28 day-one trades involving first-round selections. Two of the 28 trades included established NFL players (AJ Brown and Marquise Brown). We'll ignore both trades, as putting a numerical value on either player is difficult.

Of the remaining 26 trades, only eight times did the team trading up in the draft net more value. The other 18 times, the team trading back received equal or more value than the team trading up. To trade up in the first round, teams must pay a premium.

Since 2019, there have been a total of five trades that have included top-10 picks. Here's a breakdown of those five trades:

Top 10 1st Round Trades Since 2019

Year	Up Team	Back Team	Up Received	Up Value	Back Reveived	Back Value	Net (Up Team)
2023	Texans	Cardinals	2023 1st (3), 2023 4th (105	2,284	2023 1st (12), 2023 2nd (33), 2024 1st, 2024 3rd (90)	2,600	-316
2023	Eagles	Bears	2023 1st (9)	1,350	2023 1st (10), 2024 4th (122)	1,350	0
2021	Eagles	Cowboys	2021 1st (10)	1,300	2021 1st (12), 2021 3rd (84)	1,370	-70
2019	Steelers	Broncos	2019 1st (10)	1,300	2019 1st (20), 2019 2nd (52), 2020 3rd (83)	1405	-105
2023	Cardinals	Lions	2023 1st (6), 2023 3rd (81)	1,785	2023 1st (12), 2023 2nd (34), 2023 5th (168)	1,900	-115

None of the five trades netted the "Up Team" — the team trading up in the draft — a more valuable pool of assets. Additionally, it's uncommon for teams to trade into the top five selections on draft day, with only the Houston Texans doing so last season to draft Alabama EDGE Will Anderson (2023 DROY winner). The "Up Team" paid an average premium of 121, roughly equivalent to a late third- or early fourth-round selection.

Ryan Poles and NFL Draft Trades

In two drafts with the Bears, Ryan Poles has made seven draft-day trades. Here's a breakdown of those trades:

Ryan Poles Draft Trades

Year	Up Team	Back Team	Up Received	Up Value	Back Received	Back Value	Net (Up Team)
2022	Chargers	Bears	2023 6th (200)	11.4	2022 7th (254), 2022 7th (255)	4	7
2022	Bills	Bears	2022 5th (148)	32.2	2022 5th (168th), 2022 6th (203)	34.4	-2
2022	Texans	Bears	2022 5th (150)	31.4	2022 5th (166), 2022 6th (207)	33.6	-2
2022	Bengals	Bears	2022 5th (166)	25	2022 5th (174), 2022 7th (226)	23.8	1
2023	Eagles	Bears	2023 1st (9)	1,350	2023 1st (10), 2024 4th (122)	1,350	0
2023	Bears	Jaguars	2023 2nd (56)	340	2023 2nd (61), 2023 5th (136)	330	10
2023	Saints	Bears	2023 4th (103)	88	2023 4th (115), 2023 5th (165)	89.4	-1

Poles is very frugal with draft assets. He respects the value of each asset, and as a result, the average difference in net value is only 3.2 — roughly equivalent to a late seventh-round pick.

Many of these trades have occurred around the fourth or fifth rounds, where premiums are lower. Still, Poles has shown two major trends in his draft-day trade decisions: a preference for trading back when possible (six out of the seven trades were back) and a resistance to paying premiums.

Will Ryan Poles Trade Up? Should He?

If the Bears decide to trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft, three teams would be in consideration: New England (3), Arizona (4), and Los Angeles (5). Here's a quick breakdown of trade possible trade packages for the Bears:

Possible Bears 2024 Draft Day Trades

Up Team	Back Team	Up Receives	Up Value	Back Receives	Back Value	Net (Up Team)
Bears	Patriots	2024 1st (3), 2024 5th (137)	2,238	2024 1st (9), 2024 3rd (75), 2025 2nd (from Carolina), 2025 3rd	2,242	-5
Bears	Cardinals	2024 1st (4), 2024 4th (104)	1,886	2024 1st (9), 2025 2nd (from Carolina)	1,886	0
Bears	Chargers	2024 1st (5), 2025 6th	1,725	2024 1st (9), 2024 3rd (75), 2025 3rd	1,716	9

A few notes about the above table:

• The value of the Chargers' 2025 sixth-round pick is the average of the first 10 picks of the sixth round.
• The value of the Bears' 2025 second-round pick (from Carolina) is the average of the first 10 picks of the second round.
• The value of the Bears' 2025 third-round pick is the average of the final 16 picks of the third round.

Looking at these trades, many Bears fans, including myself, would say yes to all three in a heartbeat. And I'd expect Poles himself to say yes to all three of these trades.

In reality, projecting trade packages for top-five picks is difficult, especially if you consider the associated player. For example, when the Bears traded up from 20th overall to 11th to select Justin Fields in 2021, they gave up a premium of almost 1,200 points to the Giants (equivalent to the 12th overall selection). Many were surprised when Fields, considered the QB2 in the draft behind Trevor Lawrence, fell outside the top 10, and the Bears had to pay accordingly.

If Marvin Harrison Jr. falls out of the top four, many teams will be looking to trade up to draft him, the Bears included. With the Chargers' serious need at receiver, the premium the Bears will have to pay will be enormous.

One could expect the premium to be north of 500 points for the Bears to move to No. 5. Of course, if Harrison Jr. lives up to the hype, a 500-point premium (roughly equivalent to a second-round pick) would be more than worth it for Chicago. However, when considering the other two receivers on the board (Nabers and Odunze), it's hard to imagine that Poles, who values value more than anything, would make such a move.

In conclusion, it's hard to imagine the Bears trading up for a player like Harrison Jr. While the fan inside me would love nothing more than a draft class highlighted by Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr., I expect the Bears to stay at No. 9.