NBA playoff bets: Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 3 prediction, odds, pick for Friday 4/26

Clippers vs. Mavericks Odds

Friday, April 26, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Luka Doncic was sensational down the stretch, especially defensively. But the Clippers wasted what was ultimately a pretty good game by them if you move beyond their ability to throw the little orange thing through the circle with the net attached.

The Clippers shot 37% from the field and 27% from 3. That was the ballgame. It's easy in games like that to then look at the other side and ascribe the winning performance as the difference. Dončić made plays late, but ultimately shot just 11-of-26. He did have nine assists to just three turnovers and was a plus-8, however.

The Clippers didn't get a good game from anyone. Leonard was tentative and limited, with 15 points on 17 shots and a team-worst minus-8. If your best player wants to play, you let him play, but you have to wonder if the Clippers would have been better off sitting him, going with what worked in Game 2 and then giving him a low-win-probability Game 3 to get his legs under him.

Instead, the Clippers will not face a must-win Game 3, but it will be up against them here. The Mavericks have found major adjustments to generate advantages and the Clippers are going to have to counter to regain control of the series. Will Ty Lue make those adjustments or will they give it one more and hope for better shot variance to retake home-court advantage?

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have one significant problem and his name is not Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving. It's Maxi Kleber.

I know, I know, that sounds crazy.

But the Mavericks are +15 with Kleber on the floor through two games and a whopping -24 with him on the bench. Kleber played this role two seasons ago in the Mavericks' 2022 Western Conference Finals run. He's the small-ball option for Dallas. While they added Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II this season to give Dončić rim-runners and rim protectors, the Clippers are way too strong for them, particularly Gafford.

The problem with the Clippers last season was that Lue would too often go to small-ball units with five guards on the floor. The Clippers loaded up this season to the point where Lue almost couldn't go to those lineups because of the presence of Ivica Zubac, Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis.

The only issue is that now they have to counter this small-ball look.

I cannot stress enough the irony that the Clippers would be in much better shape in this series if they still had Nicolas Batum from the James Harden trade, despite how good Harden was in Game 1.

Kleber's ability to spread the floor neutralizes the Clippers' traditional drop look with their bigs. The Mavericks' offense has a 113 offensive rating with Kleber on the floor vs. Zubac, and a 92 offensive rating when Kleber is on the bench with Zubac on the floor.

Will Lue go to disgruntled small-ball center P.J. Tucker as he did late in the season? Dončić is 10-of-15 vs. Zubac and Plumlee via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data. He's just 5-of-19 vs. Terance Mann and Amir Coffey. The Clippers have to keep him out of attacking drop coverage or switches vs. bigs. (There's some value to letting him cook the first half and then blitzing him later in games but the Clippers did not do that in Game 2 and it cost them.)

This is all defense, though. The Clippers need to solve their offense. Leonard was 1-of-4 in the fourth and Norman Powell was 1-of-5. That's your ballgame. One of the struggles with the Clippers' Big 3 is you have to figure out who has it going and who doesn't, and adapt the gameplan accordingly. Paul George had it going but didn't get the ball enough. Either that or it's as simple as "Kawhi Leonard has to be Kawhi Leonard."

Can Leonard be that in Game 3? Absolutely, but figuring out how to predict if he will is difficult for a wildly unpredictable player even if he was healthy.

Dallas Mavericks

For Dallas, they have the lineup adjustments, which probably features fewer Gafford minutes (if he's available, he's questionable with injury), more Kleber minutes, spread the floor and push the pace. A home environment for their shooters should do wonders. I faded Derrick Jones Jr.'s production in Game 3, counting on fewer minutes for him. Instead, he played 33 minutes with 10 points and seven rebounds. Kidd didn't move away from Jones and his production will be interesting in Game 3.

P.J. Washington has been active rebounding. I'll be on his over 5.5 rebounds, especially because the Clippers are likely to put two on-ball screens to try and get the ball out of Dončić's hands.

The Mavericks didn't really want to make the adjustments and didn't want to make them as early as they did, but they had to and they did and here they are. The question is whether the Clippers even have an option they feel they can viably go to. If they don't, Dallas might run them out of the gym here. This series is close but the spot is bad.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm a skeptic of the Mavericks' defense at its base level, but they've gone beyond that. The Under is 2-0 in this series with stilted, ugly games in both of the contests. The Under is 8-4 in Mavericks home games with Dončić ,with opponent team totals under in seven of 12.

If Lue turns to Tucker, it's likely to hurt their offense when the Mavericks leave him wide open for threes, but might open things up for them to win with defense. If Lue doesn't turn to Tucker, it's more minutes for Kleber to gum things up and the Clippers have to run into a set switching defense.

Trends in 1-1 series with the team coming home are very mixed. History says this is a tight, close series. The spread is indicative of a market confidence in the Mavericks, but we're showing sharp action on the Clippers on the spread.

Instead, I'm going to play Washington over 5.5 rebounds and the Clippers team total under 103.5. I don't have confidence in the Clippers getting into a rhythm and getting hot vs. this version of the Mavericks with Kleber in a larger role.

Pick: Clippers Team Total Under 103.5 | P.J. Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds